A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
